NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)

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  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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    AXPZ20 KNHC 172020

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    2205 UTC Tue May 17 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
    03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
    from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
    information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
    radar, and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1900 UTC.


    Global models suggest that a broad area of low pressure may form
    across the western Caribbean and then shift across Central
    America late this week into the weekend. This is the
    climatologically favored time of year for these broad low
    pressure areas, called Central American Gyres, to develop. CAG's
    increase SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough well north
    of its typical position, which advects abundant moisture
    northward. This CAG will bring an increase in convection,
    starting over the southern portions of Central America, which
    will gradually lift northward across portions of Central America
    and across the waters west of Central America as the monsoon
    trough lifts northward. There will be the potential for locally
    heavy rainfall over portions of Central America, especially in
    regions of enhanced orographic lift. Please refer to products
    issued by your local weather service for more information.


    The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 06N106W to 10N123W to
    09N128W. The ITCZ extends from 09N128W to 07N140W. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N
    between 77W and 89W, from 09N to 11N between 89W and 93W, within
    270 nm south-southwest of the monsoon trough between 106W and
    116W, and from 10N to 12N between 120W and 124W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 94W and
    100W, and from 06N to 09N between 116W and 124W.


    Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja
    California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW winds are west of Baja
    California Sur. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are
    over the Gulf of California. Moderate N to NE winds are offshore
    Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open
    waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca. Seas are in the
    7-10 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, 6-8 ft off
    the coast of Baja California Sur, and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the
    open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the
    Gulf of California, highest near the entrance and also in the
    northern Gulf. Haze is reported at coastal sites from the
    southern Gulf of California southward due to agricultural fires
    over Mexico, while areas of dense fog are evident in afternoon
    visible satellite imagery just offshore Baja California.

    For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
    west of Baja California through mid-week, diminishing to gentle
    to moderate thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow
    in the Gulf of California will persist through Wed. Fresh to
    locally strong S-SW may develop in the northern Gulf of
    California early Fri through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh
    W-NW winds will develop from near Cabo San Lucas to near Cabo
    Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca Wed night through the end of the
    week. NW swell will prevail across the waters off Baja California
    Norte through the week, subsiding late this weekend.


    Please see the Special Features section for information on a
    potential heavy rainfall event.

    Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south
    of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of
    the monsoon trough, except moderate winds offshore southern
    Nicaragua. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S to SW swell.
    Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms persist from
    offshore Colombia to offshore eastern Costa Rica. Some haze has
    been reported at coastal sights from Nicaragua northward due to
    nearby agricultural fires.

    For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of
    the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh
    late Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail
    north of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate to
    fresh over Papagayo and offshore southern Nicaragua through Wed.
    Winds may briefly pulse to fresh to strong over Papagayo and
    offshore southern Nicaragua tonight. A moderate long-period
    southerly swell will linger through mid-week, with a slightly
    larger set of southerly swell arriving by Thu.


    High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and
    monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between
    the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and
    within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally
    fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon
    trough to 26N and west of 115W, locally fresh to strong north of
    27N between 120W and 127W with 7-9 ft seas in fresh northerly
    swell. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas are
    north of 26N and west of 129W near the high center. Gentle to
    moderate southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the
    ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 106W, except to 8 ft south of
    the Equator. East of 110W, light to gentle to winds are noted on
    either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas, except to 8
    ft south of the Equator and west of 95W.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will extend
    from offshore southern California into the waters north of 27N
    between 120W and 130W through mid-week, along with seas in the
    7-10 ft range due to fresh northerly swell. Otherwise, little
    change in conditions are expected across the open waters through
    the week with rather tranquil marine conditions anticipated this



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