- NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
AXPZ20 KNHC 030259
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Orlene is centered near 21.4N 106.5W at 03/0300 UTC
moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak
seas are near 24 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Orlene.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
16N to 24N between 103W and 109W. A dangerous storm surge is
likely to cause coastal flooding in the Islas Marias and along
the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of
onshore winds. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to
flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of
rugged terrain of southwest Mexico through Tuesday. Large swells
generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and
will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
day or so. These swells will cause large breaking waves
producing life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two as the system moves slowly northward. There is a
high probability for tropical cyclone development in the next
couple of days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N98W to 15N111W to
11N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
09N to 15N east of 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 110W and 117W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 17N between
120W and 126W, and from 08N to 10N between 130W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is
supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to
moderate NW winds prevail over the offshores of Baja California
Norte while a tighter pressure gradient due to the proximity of
Hurricane Orlene is supporting moderate to fresh NW over the
offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed
SE and NW swell along the Baja peninsula offshores. A recent
scatterometer pass show light to gentle variable winds in the
Gulf of California where seas remain in the 1-3 ft range. Light
to gentle variable winds are in the remainder SW Mexico open
For the forecast, winds will diminish in the entrance of the Gulf
of California and along the Baja offshore waters by Tue morning
as conditions associated with Orlene subside. Otherwise, fresh
to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through
Tue before diminishing slightly through Thu. Winds will once
again increase to fresh to strong Thu night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough
while mainly gentle NE to E winds are north of the monsoon
trough. Seas remain in the 4-6 ft range in southerly swell.
For the forecast, gentle winds S of the monsoon trough will
increase slightly through midweek. Moderate to fresh winds will
pulse each night in the Papagayo region starting Monday night.
Seas in the 4-6 ft range will increase to 6-8 ft over the
southern waters early this week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see above for an area of disturbed weather several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula with a high chance for tropical cyclone
Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N, anchored by 1020 mb
high pressure centered near 29N130W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range in NW swell over the far NW waters. supporting light to
gentle variable winds N of 24N between 120W and 135W.
Scatterometer data show gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of the
monsoon trough to 24N W of 112W. Moderate to locally fresh winds
prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range north of the monsoon trough and 6-8 ft south of the monsoon
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell
will support seas of 8 ft or greater over the far NW waters
through Monday before subsiding.